The State of Tree Care Proposals · 2026

A billion dollars of won proposals taught us: the proposal tells you everything.

Whether the Property Manager is serious. Whether the municipal bid is heating up, or quietly going cold. Who's really signing off. What they think of the price. And exactly when a crew should follow up.

Now imagine that signal across nearly a billion dollars of tree and plant health care work, built from real property maps and tree history. At ArborNote, we live and breath it, working with customers every day.

Key numbers

69%AVERAGE PROPOSAL WIN RATE
~$1BIN WON PROPOSAL REVENUE
76%OF PROPOSALS SENT IN UNDER 5 MINUTES
01
The Big Picture

Tree care closes — and keeps closing.

Across six full years of estimates, proposals, and signatures, one number barely moves. Consistency compounds.

68.6%
Overall win rate
More than triple the ~20% close rate typical of B2B proposals industry-wide.
~$1B
In won proposal revenue
Total value of tree care and plant health care work signed through ArborNote.
68–71%
The full-year range
Win rate landed inside a tight band every complete year from 2020 through 2025.

Win rate that doesn't flinch

Markets shifted. Crews grew. From 2020 to 2025 the close rate never left the high-60s to low-70s.

75%70%65%60%55%
Overall 68.6%
69.8%
2020
69.3%
2021
68.6%
2022
68.1%
2023
69.8%
2024
70.5%
2025
59.9%*
2026*
* 2026 is partial data — figures run through April 2026, with many proposals still pending a decision. Expect the rate to climb back toward the full-year band as those deals close.
02
Speed to Send

Most proposals leave in minutes.

Because the property map and tree history already live in ArborNote, estimators aren't starting from a blank page — they're assembling from real assets.

76%
Created & sent in under 5 minutes
Three out of four proposals go from estimate to the client's inbox before the truck leaves the curb — drawn straight from mapped trees and property records.
87%
Sent within 4 hours
Same-day quoting is the norm, not the exception. Momentum starts while you're still top of mind.
Speed is the cost of entry. Getting the proposal out the door fast — ideally before a competitor does — is what makes every signal that follows possible to read.
03
Reading the Signals

When clients open it, the deal changes.

A viewed proposal isn't a static document — it's a live buying environment. The way clients engage tells you whether to push, wait, or pick up the phone.

+36%
More likely to convert when viewed online
Clients who open the online proposal close meaningfully more often than those who never view it.
+130%
Higher average winning value when viewed
Engaged clients don't just sign more — they sign bigger. Viewed winners are worth more than double.
But here's the twist: how often they open it matters more than whether they open it.
−11%
Viewed just once
A single open actually trails clients who never viewed it at all — a glance isn't interest.
+21%
Viewed 2–3 times
Coming back is the tell. Repeat views mean the proposal is being weighed — and shared.
+83%
Viewed ~14 times
Like rings on a trunk, every return visit adds conviction. Heavy viewers almost always buy.
Time spent deciding

A slow read is not a cold lead.

Win rate stays essentially flat whether a client decides in under an hour or takes more than a month — with only a slight −7% dip in the 1-to-3-day window. Don't write off a deal just because it's taking time. Patience rarely costs you the close.

One caveat on the +36% view-to-convert figure: some accounts download, print, or forward proposals to share offline, which can understate "viewed" engagement. The directional signal — opens correlate with closes — holds regardless.
04
The Discount Curve

Discounts win deals — but not in a straight line.

Conventional wisdom says discounting leaves money on the table. The data says a discount is the sound of a real negotiation on a real deal. The shape of the curve is the surprise.

+15%
Higher win rate when a discount is offered
Across the board, proposals with any discount close more often than those without — even as the revenue trades the other way.
+18%
The sweet spot: a 5% (or smaller) discount
A modest token of goodwill delivers the strongest lift per dollar given away.
Win-rate lift by discount size
+18%
≤ 5%small token
below ≤5%
6–15%the dead zone
climbing
16–39%momentum returns
+43%
~40%serious money on the line
↳ The middle is the trap. A 6–15% discount underperforms even a 5% one — big enough to dent margin, too small to feel like a real concession. Lift only returns once a discount crosses ~16%, where a deep cut (a ~40% discount lifts win rate +43%) signals a genuine, high-stakes negotiation.
05
Show the Trees

Photos don't win more. They win bigger.

Adding photos of the actual trees and assets cuts both ways — and understanding the split is what turns it into strategy.

−4%
Win rate with photos included
Counterintuitively, photo-rich proposals close slightly less often — they tend to show up on larger, more scrutinized jobs.
+155%
Higher won-proposal value with photos
When a photo-backed proposal does land, it's worth more than two and a half times as much. The trees sell the size of the work.
The takeaway isn't "stop adding photos." It's know what they're for — visuals lift deal value, so save them for the jobs where value is the whole game.
Your Next Win

The next proposal is yours to close.

Nearly a billion dollars of tree care work tells a clear story: the crews that win aren't working harder — they're sending faster, reading the signals, and acting on what they see.

That's what ArborNote is built for.

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